Here is the quick start guide for building your own Outbreak response. To learn more about the theory and the model check out the Introduction and the Paper links above.
To use this quick start guide most effectively, we recommend that you open the "run model" in a separate tab using the link in the upper left corner of this page. Go ahead and open it now.
The model allows you to select and apply specific response policies like Stay-at-Home, or Mandatory Quarantine to try to control the number of people that need hospitalization.
If you look at the display you will see a table with some controls. Each row represents a response policy that you can apply on a specific day. Each policy will stay in effect until you replace it with another policy.
When you click the "show results" button below the table you will get a graph of the results of applying that policy.
Level 1 - Do nothing: everyone just goes about their normal day
Level 2 - No large gatherings: you will have to skip the concert, but you can still do most everything.
Level 3 - Close Public Venues - the churches and schools, the bars and restaurants are all closed.
Level 4 - Stay-at-home: no-one except essential workers can got to work, everything except grocery stores and other essential businesses are shut.
Level 1 - Do nothing: Nobody gets tested and nobody is quarantined.
Level 2 - Some testing: People with severe symptoms get tested, and the infected are asked to voluntarily quarantine.
Level 3 - Good Testing: Many people get tested and and the infected are asked to voluntarily quarantine.
Level 4 - Mandatory Quarantine: Almost everyone gets tested and the infected are required to isolate.
So now that we understand the policies that we can apply, let's get to work. Note - if you float your mouse over the headings in the simulator table it will pop up the levels
| Day applied | Distancing Level | Testing Level |
| 5 | Level 3 | Level 1 |
| 60 | Level 1 | Level 1 |
Here we see that while the controls are in effect, they work. But if you release them too soon everything goes back to being bad. We delayed the big peak from day 44 to day 69, and it is a little lower because the social distancing had time to work. But unless you have gotten the disease under control, when you release the controls the disease spreads again.
| Day applied | Distancing Level | Testing Level |
| 5 | Level 1 | Level 3 |
| 30 | Level 1 | Level 1 |
Hmmmm, not very impressive by itself, but it does help keep a several thousand people out of the hospital. But keep in mind, there weren't a lot of tests available in the early days.
So, Clearly you will need to explore the effects of combining both quarantine and social distancing if you are going to come up with a successful strategy.