If you haven't gone through the Basic Model Quick Start Guide, you need to do that before you dive into the advanced model.
We explain a lot of the system there, and didn't want to duplicate it here - so read that first, okay?
Quick Start
Here is the quick start guide for building your own Outbreak response.
To learn more about the theory and the model check out the Introduction and the Paper links above.
To use this quick start guide most effectively,
we recommend that you open the "run model" in a separate tab using the link in the upper left corner of this page.
Go ahead and open it now.
The model allows you to select and apply specific disease spread effects that result from policies like Stay-at-Home,
or Mandatory Quarantine to try to control the number of people that need hospitalization.
If you look at the display you will see a table with some controls.
Each row represents a 'spread configuration' that you can apply on a specific day.
Each configuration will stay in effect until you replace it with another.
Unlike the simplified model - here you can adjust the individual parameters that affect spread.
When you click the "show results" button below the table you will get a graph of the results of applying that policy.
Do nothing
To get a baseline, run the model with no response at all,
and see how many people are hospitalized, and when the peak occurs.
go to the model page, and just click "run simulation"
You should see a peak in hospitalizations around day 44 with around 24,000 beds needed.
As a heads up - the blue line is the number of available hospital beds -
if the hospitalized curve goes over the top, you will have a big problem.
Some estimates suggest that your rate of fatalities will increase 10 fold for the people who can't get a needed hospital bed!
Control Layout
As shown below, the control panel has two main sections:
Starting Conditions
Events and interventions
Control Panel Advanced Simulator.
The control provide the ability to apply precise adjustments to the underlying spread model.
The two sections are for 1) setting the stating conditions and 2) applying interventions or events at specific points during the outbreak.
The upper block allows you to set the starting conditions for the outbreak.
The initial conditions are set to approximate the conditions in Colorado on March 1st, 2020.
You can adjust these to approximate different states (increasing or decreasing population),
you can change the available hospital beds, or change the baseline daily contact rate.
This is a little tricky, but think of the number of contacts per day that a New York office worker has
versus the contacts per day of a Des Moines farmer.
Finally, if you can find a good number of the total reported deaths from COVID-19 on the 28th day of the pandemic, put it in here.
The 28th day is significant due to the time lag between initial infection, onset of symptoms, hospitalization, and the final outcome.
There are specific details about this in the technical write up
Events and Interventions
The model uses a set of controls that are applied on a selected day of the outbreak.
With one exception, the settings remain in effect until a new settings are applied.
The four specific controls that you can apply are
Asymptomatic Isolation rate
Symptomatic Isolation rate
The percentage of people who wear masks and maintain physical distancing
Public Gatherings - this is explained in more detail below, but think of Memorial day weekend.
Asymptomatic Isolation
This affects people who have no symptoms (either because they have not been infected, or because they are asymptomatic).
It represents the natural caution of people responding to messaging about the Outbreak, and staying in relative isolation.
It would also be affected by mandatory stay at home orders.
Symptomatic Isolation
This represents sick people staying home from work, as well as any infected people in the hospital.
Just like Asymptomatic Isolation, any stay at home orders would increase the number of sick people who isolate.
Masking and Physical Distance
This is the degree to which people who are out in public spaces wear masks and maintain physical distances.
Voluntary mask orders would increase this percentage some, mandatory mask orders increase it a lot.
Public Gatherings
The public gathering control works a little differently.
Since things like holidays have a start and an end, this control will take care of both.
For example, let's say that Labor Day is coming up. The holiday weekend will start on Saturday and run through Monday.
When you select Major Holiday, the system will automatically set the number of daily contacts and physical distancing
to represent all the parties and events.
When you select a 3 day duration for the holiday,
the system will automatically restore the controls to the state they were in before the start.
So, this is an exception to the rule that controls stay in effect until a new setting is applied.
So, Clearly you will need to explore the effects of combining all of these possible controls if you are going to come up with a successful strategy.
